Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Rosario, Argentina | Clay | Round of 16
06 Feb 2026, 22:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Camilo …: 69,3% Facundo …: 30,7%
¿Por qué Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
UTR 14,78 vs 14,51 (+0,27) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Camilo … Facundo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,33 3,25 75,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,44 3,26 69,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Camilo …: -1,6% Facundo …: +1,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking #48
UTR Rating 14,78 Pro
UTR Ranking #122
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Clay 22/36 = 61,1%
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Ranking #301
UTR Rating 14,51 Pro
UTR Ranking #175
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Clay 16/30 = 53,3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 253,0000
rank_ratio 6,2708
log_rank_ratio 1,8359
rank_tier_advantage 3,0000
points_diff 854,0000
best_rank_diff 4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 7,7778
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 7,0588
surface_matches_ratio 1,2000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 61,1111
surface_wr_p2 53,3333
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 52,9412
p1_surface_matches 36,0000
p2_surface_matches 30,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2222
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,9978
first_serve_won_diff 0,4000
second_serve_won_diff -6,4000
bp_saved_diff -0,9000
bp_converted_diff 0,7000
aces_per_match_diff -1,1389
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 1,7940
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5417
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7273
serve_consistency_p1 13,7129
serve_consistency_p2 5,8426
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 14,2793
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1419
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2863
elite_surface_amplifier 23,3333
UTR
utr_diff 0,2700
utr_p1 0,7976
utr_p2 0,7659
utr_advantage 1,8436
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25389
API ID 15440898
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Rosario, Argentina
Superficie Clay
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25389,
    "api_id": 15440898,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
    "player2": "Facundo Diaz Acosta",
    "tournament": "Rosario, Argentina",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-02-06T18:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.25
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.03
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6934,
    "prob_p2": 0.3066,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6934,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 48,
      "utr_singles": 14.78,
      "utr_ranking": 122,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.111111111111114,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 301,
      "utr_singles": 14.51,
      "utr_ranking": 175,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.333333333333336,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.78,
      "ranking": 122,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.51,
      "ranking": 175,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.7658823529411765,
    "utr_diff": 0.2699999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 6.270833333333333,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 854,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.9000000000000057,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -2.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 61.111111111111114,
    "surface_wr_p2": 53.333333333333336,
    "utr_advantage": 1.8436326391259787,
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    "best_rank_diff": 4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.8359092538409847,
    "rank_advantage": 253,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.7272727272727273,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 7.777777777777779,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.6999999999999957,
    "p1_surface_matches": 36,
    "p2_surface_matches": 30,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.9977777777777774,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5416666666666666,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.1388888888888888,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.4000000000000057,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2222222222222222,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.712860739457415,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.842573933579058,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 14.279294196540993,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 52.94117647058824,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.400000000000006,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.2,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 1.793999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 23.333333333333336,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.14188888888888884,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.28633333333333333,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 7.058823529411761,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}