Luca Nardi vs Flavio Cobolli
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 18:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Flavio Cobolli
Luca …: 35,0% Flavio …: 65,0%
¿Por qué Flavio Cobolli?
UTR 14,57 vs 15,29 (-0,72) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Luca … Flavio … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,57 42,0%
Gamdom 2,21 1,68 45,2%
IA Fair Odds 2,86 1,54 35,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Luca …: -4,7% Flavio …: +4,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking #106
UTR Rating 14,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #159
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/41 = 53,7%
Flavio Cobolli
Ranking #20
UTR Rating 15,29 Pro
UTR Ranking #48
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 12/31 = 38,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -86,0000
rank_ratio 0,1887
log_rank_ratio -1,6677
rank_tier_advantage -3,0000
points_diff -1384,0000
best_rank_diff -50,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 14,9489
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 13,3333
surface_matches_ratio 1,3226
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 53,6585
surface_wr_p2 38,7097
surface_wr_p1_stable 53,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 40,0000
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0732
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,0534
first_serve_won_diff 0,5120
second_serve_won_diff -6,2634
bp_saved_diff -1,1493
bp_converted_diff 5,9969
aces_per_match_diff -1,7152
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,6000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 20,0000
momentum_diff 50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 36,9040
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 18,0000
match_load_p1 6,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 6,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,4000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,4842
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6633
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,4375
serve_consistency_p1 10,6179
serve_consistency_p2 6,1065
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -24,9303
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1226
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1989
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,7200
utr_p1 0,7729
utr_p2 0,8576
utr_advantage -4,8225
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25399
API ID 15441207
Gamdom ID 638738
Torneo Montpellier
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25399,
    "api_id": 15441207,
    "gamdom_id": 638738,
    "player1": "Luca Nardi",
    "player2": "Flavio Cobolli",
    "tournament": "Montpellier",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-02-05T14:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.38,
      "p2": 1.5699999999999998
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.21,
      "p2": 1.68
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.07,
      "p2": 1.78
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.35,
    "prob_p2": 0.65,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.65,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 106,
      "utr_singles": 14.57,
      "utr_ranking": 159,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 20,
      "utr_singles": 15.29,
      "utr_ranking": 48,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.70967741935484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.57,
      "ranking": 159,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.29,
      "ranking": 48,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7729411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.8576470588235293,
    "utr_diff": -0.7199999999999989,
    "rank_ratio": 0.18867924528301888,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 20.0,
    "points_diff": -1384,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -1.1493312352478355,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 6,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
    "surface_wr_p2": 38.70967741935484,
    "utr_advantage": -4.822505023442726,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -50,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.667706820558076,
    "rank_advantage": -86,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 6,
    "surface_wr_diff": 14.948859166011019,
    "bp_converted_diff": 5.996931549960657,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.0534146341463355,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6633165829145728,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.7151848937844218,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0.5119590873328121,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.617906601938254,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.1065158704977405,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -24.93031439071869,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.2634146341463435,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.3225806451612903,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 36.90400000000002,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 18,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12258536585365853,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1989032258064516,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.333333333333336,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 2,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}