Luca Nardi vs Flavio Cobolli
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 18:55
05 Feb 2026, 18:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Flavio Cobolli
Luca …: 35,0%
Flavio …: 65,0%
¿Por qué Flavio Cobolli?
UTR 14,57 vs 15,29
(-0,72)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luca … | Flavio … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,38 | 1,57 | 42,0% |
| Gamdom | 2,21 | 1,68 | 45,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,86 | 1,54 | 35,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Luca …: -4,7%
Flavio …: +4,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking
#106
UTR Rating
14,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#159
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Flavio Cobolli
Ranking
#20
UTR Rating
15,29 Pro
UTR Ranking
#48
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
12/31 = 38,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -86,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,1887 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,6677 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -3,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1384,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -50,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 14,9489 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 13,3333 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,3226 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 53,6585 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 38,7097 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 53,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 40,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0732 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -5,0534 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,5120 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,2634 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,1493 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5,9969 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,7152 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 20,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 36,9040 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 18,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 6,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4842 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6633 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,4375 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,6179 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,1065 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -24,9303 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1226 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1989 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,7200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7729 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8576 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,8225 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25399
API ID
15441207
Gamdom ID
638738
Torneo
Montpellier
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25399,
"api_id": 15441207,
"gamdom_id": 638738,
"player1": "Luca Nardi",
"player2": "Flavio Cobolli",
"tournament": "Montpellier",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-02-05T14:55:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.38,
"p2": 1.5699999999999998
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.21,
"p2": 1.68
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.07,
"p2": 1.78
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.35,
"prob_p2": 0.65,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.65,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 106,
"utr_singles": 14.57,
"utr_ranking": 159,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 20,
"utr_singles": 15.29,
"utr_ranking": 48,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.70967741935484,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.57,
"ranking": 159,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.29,
"ranking": 48,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8576470588235293,
"utr_diff": -0.7199999999999989,
"rank_ratio": 0.18867924528301888,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 20.0,
"points_diff": -1384,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.1493312352478355,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 50.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 53.65853658536586,
"surface_wr_p2": 38.70967741935484,
"utr_advantage": -4.822505023442726,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -50,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.667706820558076,
"rank_advantage": -86,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.4375,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 6,
"surface_wr_diff": 14.948859166011019,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.996931549960657,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 31,
"serve_quality_diff": -5.0534146341463355,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.4842105263157895,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6633165829145728,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.7151848937844218,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -3,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0.5119590873328121,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.07317073170731707,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.617906601938254,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.1065158704977405,
"surface_rank_synergy": -24.93031439071869,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 53.333333333333336,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 40.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.2634146341463435,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.3225806451612903,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 36.90400000000002,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 18,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.12258536585365853,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.1989032258064516,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.333333333333336,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}