Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Stan Wawrinka
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 21:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix …: 78,3% Stan …: 21,7%
¿Por qué Felix Auger-Aliassime?
UTR 15,94 vs 14,80 (+1,14) — Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Felix … Stan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,33 3,40 75,2%
Gamdom 1,33 3,35 75,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,28 4,61 78,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Felix …: +6,4% Stan …: -6,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Ranking #8
UTR Rating 15,94 Pro
UTR Ranking #5
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 37/52 = 71,2%
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking #113
UTR Rating 14,80 Pro
UTR Ranking #114
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 10/20 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 105,0000
rank_ratio 14,1250
log_rank_ratio 2,6479
rank_tier_advantage 4,0000
points_diff 3188,0000
best_rank_diff -2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 21,1538
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 16,3690
surface_matches_ratio 2,6000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 3,0000
surface_wr_p1 71,1538
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 69,6429
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 52,0000
p2_surface_matches 20,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4231
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,6667
combined_confidence 0,8333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 6,8620
first_serve_won_diff -2,5492
second_serve_won_diff 2,3785
bp_saved_diff 4,1362
bp_converted_diff -1,7592
aces_per_match_diff 3,7115
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 22,0000
momentum_p2 68,0000
momentum_diff -46,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -40,5690
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 17,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0871
winner_ue_ratio_p2 2,4615
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7600
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6250
serve_consistency_p1 9,2939
serve_consistency_p2 7,0771
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 56,0142
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1065
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1050
elite_surface_amplifier 84,6154
UTR
utr_diff 1,1400
utr_p1 0,9341
utr_p2 0,8000
utr_advantage 7,4170
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25402
API ID 15441208
Gamdom ID 638727
Torneo Montpellier
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 16
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25402,
    "api_id": 15441208,
    "gamdom_id": 638727,
    "player1": "Felix Auger-Aliassime",
    "player2": "Stan Wawrinka",
    "tournament": "Montpellier",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 16",
    "date": "2026-02-05T17:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.33,
      "p2": 3.35
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.31,
      "p2": 3.4
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7832,
    "prob_p2": 0.2168,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7832,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 8,
      "utr_singles": 15.94,
      "utr_ranking": 5,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 71.15384615384616,
      "wr_surface_wins": 37,
      "wr_surface_total": 52,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 113,
      "utr_singles": 14.8,
      "utr_ranking": 114,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.94,
      "ranking": 5,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.8,
      "ranking": 114,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9341176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.8,
    "utr_diff": 1.1399999999999988,
    "rank_ratio": 14.125,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 22.0,
    "momentum_p2": 68.0,
    "points_diff": 3188,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 4.136153846153846,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -46.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 71.15384615384616,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 7.417046193884182,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 2.6479462770325046,
    "rank_advantage": 105,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.76,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 21.15384615384616,
    "bp_converted_diff": -1.7592307692307614,
    "p1_surface_matches": 52,
    "p2_surface_matches": 20,
    "serve_quality_diff": 6.862000000000009,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0870967741935484,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 2.4615384615384617,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.7115384615384617,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 4,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -2.5492307692307463,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.4230769230769231,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.293944168592217,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.077111715587508,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 56.014248167995305,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.64285714285714,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 2.3784615384615364,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.6,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -40.569,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 84.61538461538464,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 17,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10653846153846158,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10499999999999998,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.369047619047613,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}