Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Stan Wawrinka
Montpellier | Hard | Round of 16
05 Feb 2026, 21:30
05 Feb 2026, 21:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix …: 78,3%
Stan …: 21,7%
¿Por qué Felix Auger-Aliassime?
UTR 15,94 vs 14,80
(+1,14)
— Ligera ventaja
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Felix … | Stan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,33 | 3,40 | 75,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,33 | 3,35 | 75,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,28 | 4,61 | 78,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Felix …: +6,4%
Stan …: -6,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Ranking
#8
UTR Rating
15,94 Pro
UTR Ranking
#5
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
37/52 = 71,2%
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking
#113
UTR Rating
14,80 Pro
UTR Ranking
#114
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
10/20 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 105,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 14,1250 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 2,6479 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 4,0000 | |
| points_diff | 3188,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 21,1538 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 16,3690 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,6000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 71,1538 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 69,6429 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4231 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,8620 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,5492 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 2,3785 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 4,1362 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -1,7592 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 3,7115 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 68,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -46,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -40,5690 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 17,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0871 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 2,4615 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7600 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6250 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,2939 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,0771 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 56,0142 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1065 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1050 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 84,6154 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,1400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9341 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8000 | |
| utr_advantage | 7,4170 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25402
API ID
15441208
Gamdom ID
638727
Torneo
Montpellier
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 16
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25402,
"api_id": 15441208,
"gamdom_id": 638727,
"player1": "Felix Auger-Aliassime",
"player2": "Stan Wawrinka",
"tournament": "Montpellier",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 16",
"date": "2026-02-05T17:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.33,
"p2": 3.35
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.31,
"p2": 3.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7832,
"prob_p2": 0.2168,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7832,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 8,
"utr_singles": 15.94,
"utr_ranking": 5,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 71.15384615384616,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 113,
"utr_singles": 14.8,
"utr_ranking": 114,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 5,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.8,
"ranking": 114,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.8,
"utr_diff": 1.1399999999999988,
"rank_ratio": 14.125,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 22.0,
"momentum_p2": 68.0,
"points_diff": 3188,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 4.136153846153846,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -46.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 71.15384615384616,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 7.417046193884182,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 2.6479462770325046,
"rank_advantage": 105,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.76,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 21.15384615384616,
"bp_converted_diff": -1.7592307692307614,
"p1_surface_matches": 52,
"p2_surface_matches": 20,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.862000000000009,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0870967741935484,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 2.4615384615384617,
"aces_per_match_diff": 3.7115384615384617,
"combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 4,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.5492307692307463,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.4230769230769231,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.293944168592217,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.077111715587508,
"surface_rank_synergy": 56.014248167995305,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.64285714285714,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 2.3784615384615364,
"surface_matches_ratio": 2.6,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -40.569,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 84.61538461538464,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 17,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10653846153846158,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.10499999999999998,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 16.369047619047613,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 3
},
"feature_importance": {}
}