Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Gea
Montpellier | Hard | Quarterfinals
06 Feb 2026, 17:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Adrian Mannarino
Adrian …: 58,4% Arthur …: 41,6%
¿Por qué Adrian Mannarino?
UTR 15,23 vs 14,95 (+0,28) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Adrian … Arthur … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,20 1,67 45,5%
Gamdom 2,18 1,69 45,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,71 2,40 58,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Adrian …: +15,2% Arthur …: -15,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Adrian Mannarino
Ranking #70
UTR Rating 15,23 Pro
UTR Ranking #57
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 30% (10p)
WR Hard 15/36 = 41,7%
Arthur Gea
Ranking #168
UTR Rating 14,95 Pro
UTR Ranking #98
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 5/12 = 41,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 98,0000
rank_ratio 2,4000
log_rank_ratio 0,8755
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 457,0000
best_rank_diff 151,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0,9125
surface_matches_ratio 3,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 41,6667
surface_wr_p2 41,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 42,5000
surface_wr_p2_stable 43,7500
p1_surface_matches 36,0000
p2_surface_matches 12,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1667
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,4600
combined_confidence 0,7300
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -0,8019
first_serve_won_diff -3,5833
second_serve_won_diff 0,8917
bp_saved_diff -0,6500
bp_converted_diff 10,9583
aces_per_match_diff 0,3611
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 70,0000
momentum_p2 80,0000
momentum_diff -10,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,7550
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7532
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0909
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 11,9054
serve_consistency_p2 11,2608
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1813
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0147
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,2800
utr_p1 0,8506
utr_p2 0,8176
utr_advantage 1,8555
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25405
API ID 15441193
Gamdom ID 638729
Torneo Montpellier
Superficie Hard
Ronda Quarterfinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25405,
    "api_id": 15441193,
    "gamdom_id": 638729,
    "player1": "Adrian Mannarino",
    "player2": "Arthur Gea",
    "tournament": "Montpellier",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Quarterfinals",
    "date": "2026-02-06T13:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.2,
      "p2": 1.67
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.18,
      "p2": 1.69
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.12,
      "p2": 1.71
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5839,
    "prob_p2": 0.4161,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5839,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": 15.23,
      "utr_ranking": 57,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 30.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 168,
      "utr_singles": 14.95,
      "utr_ranking": 98,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 12,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.23,
      "ranking": 57,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.95,
      "ranking": 98,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8505882352941176,
    "utr_p2": 0.8176470588235293,
    "utr_diff": 0.28000000000000114,
    "rank_ratio": 2.4,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 70.0,
    "momentum_p2": 80.0,
    "points_diff": 457,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.6500000000000057,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -10.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.46,
    "surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p2": 41.66666666666667,
    "utr_advantage": 1.8555334658714455,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 151,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.8754687373538999,
    "rank_advantage": 98,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.09090909090909091,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 10.95833333333334,
    "p1_surface_matches": 36,
    "p2_surface_matches": 12,
    "serve_quality_diff": -0.8019444444444517,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7531645569620253,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.3611111111111116,
    "combined_confidence": 0.73,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -3.583333333333357,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.905390163821675,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 11.260814138764541,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.5,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.75,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.8916666666666799,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.7549999999999955,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.18133333333333324,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.014666666666666717,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.9125,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}