Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Gea
Montpellier | Hard | Quarterfinals
06 Feb 2026, 17:30
06 Feb 2026, 17:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Adrian Mannarino
Adrian …: 58,4%
Arthur …: 41,6%
¿Por qué Adrian Mannarino?
UTR 15,23 vs 14,95
(+0,28)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Adrian … | Arthur … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,20 | 1,67 | 45,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,18 | 1,69 | 45,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,71 | 2,40 | 58,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Adrian …: +15,2%
Arthur …: -15,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Adrian Mannarino
Ranking
#70
UTR Rating
15,23 Pro
UTR Ranking
#57
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
15/36 = 41,7%
Arthur Gea
Ranking
#168
UTR Rating
14,95 Pro
UTR Ranking
#98
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
5/12 = 41,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 98,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,4000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,8755 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 457,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 151,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -0,9125 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 3,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 41,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 41,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 42,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 43,7500 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 12,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1667 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4600 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7300 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -0,8019 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,5833 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,8917 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,6500 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 10,9583 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,3611 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -10,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -6,7550 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7532 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0909 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,9054 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 11,2608 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1813 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0147 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,2800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8506 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8176 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,8555 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25405
API ID
15441193
Gamdom ID
638729
Torneo
Montpellier
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Quarterfinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25405,
"api_id": 15441193,
"gamdom_id": 638729,
"player1": "Adrian Mannarino",
"player2": "Arthur Gea",
"tournament": "Montpellier",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Quarterfinals",
"date": "2026-02-06T13:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.2,
"p2": 1.67
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.18,
"p2": 1.69
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.12,
"p2": 1.71
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5839,
"prob_p2": 0.4161,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5839,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 70,
"utr_singles": 15.23,
"utr_ranking": 57,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 168,
"utr_singles": 14.95,
"utr_ranking": 98,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 12,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.23,
"ranking": 57,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.95,
"ranking": 98,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8505882352941176,
"utr_p2": 0.8176470588235293,
"utr_diff": 0.28000000000000114,
"rank_ratio": 2.4,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 70.0,
"momentum_p2": 80.0,
"points_diff": 457,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.6500000000000057,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -10.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.46,
"surface_wr_p1": 41.66666666666667,
"surface_wr_p2": 41.66666666666667,
"utr_advantage": 1.8555334658714455,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 151,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.8754687373538999,
"rank_advantage": 98,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.09090909090909091,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0.0,
"bp_converted_diff": 10.95833333333334,
"p1_surface_matches": 36,
"p2_surface_matches": 12,
"serve_quality_diff": -0.8019444444444517,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7531645569620253,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.3611111111111116,
"combined_confidence": 0.73,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.583333333333357,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.16666666666666666,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.905390163821675,
"serve_consistency_p2": 11.260814138764541,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 42.5,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 43.75,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.8916666666666799,
"surface_matches_ratio": 3.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -6.7549999999999955,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.18133333333333324,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.014666666666666717,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.9125,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}