Matej Dodig vs Elmer Moller
Davis Cup | |
06 Feb 2026, 19:00
06 Feb 2026, 19:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matej Dodig
Matej …: 51,2%
Elmer …: 48,8%
¿Por qué Matej Dodig?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (34%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Matej … | Elmer … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,73 | 2,00 | 57,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,85 | 1,96 | 54,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,95 | 2,05 | 51,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Matej …: -2,4%
Elmer …: +2,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matej Dodig
Ranking
#235
UTR Rating
14,08 Pro
UTR Ranking
#328
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
33% (9p)
WR
/ = %
Elmer Moller
Ranking
#120
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR
/ = %
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -115,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5106 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,6721 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -265,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -129,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 6,0654 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 51,0638 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 33,2245 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 6,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3800 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3400 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -57,1333 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -66,1000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -52,5000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -54,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -37,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -4,1667 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -22,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 25,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 23,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3429 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,8526 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,6071 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,3850 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,6150 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7153 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7153 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25450
API ID
15490020
Gamdom ID
662451
Torneo
Davis Cup
Superficie
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25450,
"api_id": 15490020,
"gamdom_id": 662451,
"player1": "Matej Dodig",
"player2": "Elmer Moller",
"tournament": "Davis Cup",
"surface": "",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-02-06T15:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.7272727272727273,
"p2": 2.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.85,
"p2": 1.96
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.84,
"p2": 1.91
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5123,
"prob_p2": 0.4877,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5123,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 235,
"utr_singles": 14.08,
"utr_ranking": 328,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 9
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 120,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.08,
"ranking": 328,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7152941176470589,
"utr_p2": 0.7152941176470589,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 0.5106382978723404,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -265,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -54.0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -29.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.38,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": -129,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.672093771362113,
"rank_advantage": -115,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": -37.0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 6,
"serve_quality_diff": -57.13333333333333,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.34285714285714286,
"aces_per_match_diff": -4.166666666666667,
"combined_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -66.1,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.852565169424098,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.60706622264157,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 51.06382978723404,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 33.22448979591837,
"second_serve_won_diff": -52.5,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -22.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 25,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 23,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.385,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.615,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.065375597047327,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}