Sebastian Dominko vs Mert Alkaya
Davis Cup | |
06 Feb 2026, 16:00
06 Feb 2026, 16:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mert Alkaya
Sebastian …: 25,7%
Mert …: 74,3%
¿Por qué Mert Alkaya?
UTR 13,83 vs 14,02
(-0,19)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sebastian … | Mert … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,83 | 1,83 | 54,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,67 | 2,22 | 59,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,89 | 1,35 | 25,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sebastian …: -24,3%
Mert …: +24,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Dominko
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,83 General
UTR Ranking
#502
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (5p)
WR
/ = %
Mert Alkaya
Ranking
#376
UTR Rating
14,02 Pro
UTR Ranking
#373
Forma L5
50% (2p)
Forma L10
50% (2p)
WR
/ = %
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -124,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7520 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2850 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -126,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -125,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 2,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3267 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3133 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -70,9900 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -74,3000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -62,8000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -62,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -28,6000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -7,5000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,5000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,5000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 42,8571 | |
| momentum_diff | 57,1429 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 42,8571 | |
| current_streak_diff | 6,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 25,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 10,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,6301 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 12,5539 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 14,2509 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,3760 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,1240 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,1900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6859 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7082 | |
| utr_advantage | -1,3645 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25456
API ID
15490771
Gamdom ID
662601
Torneo
Davis Cup
Superficie
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25456,
"api_id": 15490771,
"gamdom_id": 662601,
"player1": "Sebastian Dominko",
"player2": "Mert Alkaya",
"tournament": "Davis Cup",
"surface": "",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-02-06T12:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8333333333333335,
"p2": 1.8333333333333335
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.67,
"p2": 2.22
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.65,
"p2": 2.17
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2571,
"prob_p2": 0.7429,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7429,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.83,
"utr_ranking": 502,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 376,
"utr_singles": 14.02,
"utr_ranking": 373,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"form_l5_wr": 50.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.83,
"ranking": 502,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.02,
"ranking": 373,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6858823529411765,
"utr_p2": 0.708235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.1899999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 0.752,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 42.85714285714286,
"points_diff": -126,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -62.5,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.5,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.5,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 57.142857142857125,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": -1.3644524236983806,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -125,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.28501895503229724,
"rank_advantage": -124,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": -50.0,
"bp_converted_diff": -28.6,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 2,
"serve_quality_diff": -70.99,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -7.5,
"combined_confidence": 0.31333333333333335,
"current_streak_diff": 6,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -74.3,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.630114214194404,
"serve_consistency_p2": 12.553925798101812,
"surface_rank_synergy": 14.250947751614863,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -62.8,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 42.85714285714286,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 25,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 10,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.376,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.124,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}