Sebastian Dominko vs Mert Alkaya
Davis Cup | |
06 Feb 2026, 16:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Mert Alkaya
Sebastian …: 25,7% Mert …: 74,3%
¿Por qué Mert Alkaya?
UTR 13,83 vs 14,02 (-0,19) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sebastian … Mert … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,83 1,83 54,5%
Gamdom 1,67 2,22 59,9%
IA Fair Odds 3,89 1,35 25,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Sebastian …: -24,3% Mert …: +24,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Dominko
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,83 General
UTR Ranking #502
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 100% (5p)
WR / = %
Mert Alkaya
Ranking #376
UTR Rating 14,02 Pro
UTR Ranking #373
Forma L5 50% (2p)
Forma L10 50% (2p)
WR / = %
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -124,0000
rank_ratio 0,7520
log_rank_ratio -0,2850
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -126,0000
best_rank_diff -125,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -50,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 2,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3267
combined_confidence 0,3133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -70,9900
first_serve_won_diff -74,3000
second_serve_won_diff -62,8000
bp_saved_diff -62,5000
bp_converted_diff -28,6000
aces_per_match_diff -7,5000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,5000
last3_wr_diff 0,5000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 42,8571
momentum_diff 57,1429
weighted_momentum_diff 42,8571
current_streak_diff 6,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 25,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 10,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 2,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 6,6301
serve_consistency_p2 12,5539
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 14,2509
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3760
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,1240
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1900
utr_p1 0,6859
utr_p2 0,7082
utr_advantage -1,3645
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 25456
API ID 15490771
Gamdom ID 662601
Torneo Davis Cup
Superficie
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 25456,
    "api_id": 15490771,
    "gamdom_id": 662601,
    "player1": "Sebastian Dominko",
    "player2": "Mert Alkaya",
    "tournament": "Davis Cup",
    "surface": "",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-02-06T12:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8333333333333335,
      "p2": 1.8333333333333335
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.67,
      "p2": 2.22
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.65,
      "p2": 2.17
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2571,
    "prob_p2": 0.7429,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7429,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.83,
      "utr_ranking": 502,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 376,
      "utr_singles": 14.02,
      "utr_ranking": 373,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 2,
      "form_l10_matches": 2
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.83,
      "ranking": 502,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.02,
      "ranking": 373,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6858823529411765,
    "utr_p2": 0.708235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.1899999999999995,
    "rank_ratio": 0.752,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 42.85714285714286,
    "points_diff": -126,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -62.5,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.5,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.5,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": 57.142857142857125,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.3644524236983806,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -125,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.28501895503229724,
    "rank_advantage": -124,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -50.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -28.6,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 2,
    "serve_quality_diff": -70.99,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -7.5,
    "combined_confidence": 0.31333333333333335,
    "current_streak_diff": 6,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -74.3,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.630114214194404,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.553925798101812,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 14.250947751614863,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -62.8,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 42.85714285714286,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 25,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 10,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.376,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.124,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}