Sumit Nagal vs Guy Den Ouden
Davis Cup | |
07 Feb 2026, 14:30
07 Feb 2026, 14:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sumit Nagal
Sumit …: 77,5%
Guy …: 22,5%
¿Por qué Sumit Nagal?
UTR 14,42 vs 14,45
(-0,03)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (34%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sumit … | Guy … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,50 | 2,50 | 66,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,60 | 2,35 | 62,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,29 | 4,45 | 77,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sumit …: +15,0%
Guy …: -15,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sumit Nagal
Ranking
#281
UTR Rating
14,42 Pro
UTR Ranking
#199
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR
/ = %
Guy Den Ouden
Ranking
#162
UTR Rating
14,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#182
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
14% (7p)
WR
/ = %
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -119,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5765 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5508 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -185,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 79,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,0444 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 5,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 49,2222 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 67,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 5,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 1,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3133 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3400 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,9000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,8000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -11,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 41,2000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 10,7000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 32,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 23,9200 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 72,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 9,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8500 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,5549 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,5211 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -22,0303 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0190 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,6190 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,0300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7553 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7588 | |
| utr_advantage | -0,2078 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25545
API ID
15494440
Gamdom ID
664804
Torneo
Davis Cup
Superficie
Ronda
Status
live
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25545,
"api_id": 15494440,
"gamdom_id": 664804,
"player1": "Sumit Nagal",
"player2": "Guy Den Ouden",
"tournament": "Davis Cup",
"surface": "",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-02-07T10:30:00+00:00",
"status": "live"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5,
"p2": 2.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.6,
"p2": 2.35
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.65,
"p2": 2.19
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.7751,
"prob_p2": 0.2249,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.7751,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 281,
"utr_singles": 14.42,
"utr_ranking": 199,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 162,
"utr_singles": 14.45,
"utr_ranking": 182,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 14.285714285714285,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 7
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.42,
"ranking": 199,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.45,
"ranking": 182,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7552941176470588,
"utr_p2": 0.7588235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.02999999999999936,
"rank_ratio": 0.5765124555160143,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 8.0,
"points_diff": -185,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 41.2,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": 32.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
"p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 40.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -0.20782819535849922,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 79,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5507583341013617,
"rank_advantage": -119,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": 40.0,
"bp_converted_diff": 10.700000000000003,
"p1_surface_matches": 5,
"p2_surface_matches": 1,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.8999999999999986,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.85,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.0,
"combined_confidence": 0.33999999999999997,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.800000000000004,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.55493600539838,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.521074511082306,
"surface_rank_synergy": -22.030333364054467,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 49.22222222222222,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 67.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -11.0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 5.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 23.92,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 72,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 9,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.019000000000000017,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.619,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.044444444444444,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}