Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Rosario, Argentina | Clay | Semifinals
08 Feb 2026, 01:30
08 Feb 2026, 01:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Camilo …: 46,9%
Juan …: 53,1%
¿Por qué Juan Manuel Cerundolo?
UTR 14,78 vs 14,64
(+0,14)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Camilo … | Juan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,73 | 2,00 | 57,8% |
| Gamdom | 1,89 | 1,89 | 52,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,13 | 1,88 | 46,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Camilo …: -6,7%
Juan …: +6,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking
#48
UTR Rating
14,78 Pro
UTR Ranking
#122
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Clay
22/36 = 61,1%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Ranking
#85
UTR Rating
14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#142
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Clay
31/46 = 67,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 37,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,7708 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,5715 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 330,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 28,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -6,2802 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7826 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 61,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 67,3913 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2222 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,5836 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 2,6000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -4,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,6000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -8,2000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,3418 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 90,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,4800 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5417 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0652 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5556 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,6696 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,0054 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,5888 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0741 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2109 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -6,2802 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7976 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7812 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,9517 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
25939
API ID
15440897
Gamdom ID
665236
Torneo
Rosario, Argentina
Superficie
Clay
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
scheduled
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 25939,
"api_id": 15440897,
"gamdom_id": 665236,
"player1": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
"player2": "Juan Manuel Cerundolo",
"tournament": "Rosario, Argentina",
"surface": "clay",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2026-02-07T21:30:00+00:00",
"status": "scheduled"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.73,
"p2": 2.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.89,
"p2": 1.89
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.78,
"p2": 1.96
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4689,
"prob_p2": 0.5311,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5311,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 48,
"utr_singles": 14.78,
"utr_ranking": 122,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.111111111111114,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 85,
"utr_singles": 14.64,
"utr_ranking": 142,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 67.3913043478261,
"wr_surface_wins": 31,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 14.78,
"ranking": 122,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.64,
"ranking": 142,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.7976470588235294,
"utr_p2": 0.7811764705882354,
"utr_diff": 0.1399999999999988,
"rank_ratio": 1.7708333333333333,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 89.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 89.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 330,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.5999999999999943,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 61.111111111111114,
"surface_wr_p2": 67.3913043478261,
"utr_advantage": 0.9517335146158993,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 28,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.5714502455824255,
"rank_advantage": 37,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5555555555555556,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -6.280193236714979,
"bp_converted_diff": -8.200000000000003,
"p1_surface_matches": 36,
"p2_surface_matches": 46,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.583574879227058,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5416666666666666,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.065217391304348,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.3417874396135265,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 2.5999999999999943,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2222222222222222,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.669571750929938,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.0053598022147385,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.5888179674258627,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -4.0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.782608695652174,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0.480000000000004,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -6.280193236714979,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07411111111111124,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2109130434782609,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}