Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Sonego
Washington | Hard | Round of 32
23 Jul 2025, 17:25
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Matteo … Lorenzo … Prob Impl. P1
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matteo Arnaldi
Ranking #61
UTR Rating 15.42 Pro
UTR Ranking #66
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 33/65 = 50.8%
Lorenzo Sonego
Ranking #39
UTR Rating 15.63 Pro
UTR Ranking #48
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 34/73 = 46.6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -22.0000
rank_ratio 0.6393
log_rank_ratio -0.4473
rank_tier_advantage -1.0000
points_diff -382.0000
best_rank_diff -9.0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 2.1496
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 3.9714
surface_matches_ratio 0.8904
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1.0000
surface_wr_p1 49.8769
surface_wr_p2 47.7273
surface_wr_p1_stable 50.7246
surface_wr_p2_stable 46.7532
p1_surface_matches 65.0000
p2_surface_matches 73.0000
p1_surface_dominance 0.0154
Confianza
p1_confidence 1.0000
p2_confidence 1.0000
combined_confidence 1.0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2.0053
first_serve_won_diff -1.4586
second_serve_won_diff 1.4371
bp_saved_diff -3.5577
bp_converted_diff 0.5711
aces_per_match_diff -0.8536
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0.2000
last3_wr_diff -0.3333
momentum_p1 48.0000
momentum_p2 58.0000
momentum_diff -10.0000
weighted_momentum_diff -5.7750
current_streak_diff 2.0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2.0000
days_since_last_match_p2 16.0000
match_load_p1 1.0000
match_load_p2 0.0000
match_load_diff 1.0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0.0000
h2h_matches 0.0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0.5000
h2h_on_surface 0.0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0.5000
h2h_confidence_score 0.0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0.7625
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1.2821
tiebreak_wr_p1 0.6897
tiebreak_wr_p2 0.4688
serve_consistency_p1 5.4467
serve_consistency_p2 3.4178
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0.9616
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0.0208
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0.0447
elite_surface_amplifier 0.0000
UTR
utr_diff -0.2100
utr_p1 0.8729
utr_p2 0.8976
utr_advantage -1.3527
utr_both_pro 1.0000
utr_available 1.0000
utr_expected_prob 0.0000
utr_closeness 0.0000
utr_data_quality 0.0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
surface_wr_diff 0.1032
surface_rank_synergy 0.0540
points_diff 0.0344
utr_diff 0.0324
utr_advantage 0.0308
rank_tier_advantage 0.0300
rank_advantage 0.0264
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0.0206
log_rank_ratio 0.0186
utr_available 0.0172
Info del Partido
Match ID 7299
API ID 14192228
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Washington
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 7299,
    "api_id": 14192228,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Matteo Arnaldi",
    "player2": "Lorenzo Sonego",
    "tournament": "Washington",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2025-07-23T17:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": null,
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 61,
      "utr_singles": 15.42,
      "utr_ranking": 66,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.76923076923077,
      "wr_surface_wins": 33,
      "wr_surface_total": 65,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 39,
      "utr_singles": 15.63,
      "utr_ranking": 48,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 46.57534246575342,
      "wr_surface_wins": 34,
      "wr_surface_total": 73,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.42,
      "ranking": 66,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.63,
      "ranking": 48,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "rank_advantage": -22,
    "rank_ratio": 0.639344262295082,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4473122180436648,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "points_diff": -382,
    "best_rank_diff": -9,
    "surface_wr_diff": 2.149621212121211,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.9713909279126725,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8904109589041096,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_p1": 49.87689393939394,
    "surface_wr_p2": 47.72727272727273,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.72463768115942,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 46.75324675324675,
    "p1_surface_matches": 65,
    "p2_surface_matches": 73,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.015384615384615385,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.005348484848497,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.4586174242424192,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.4370643939393943,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.5576893939394054,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.5710984848484841,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.8535795454545463,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "momentum_p1": 48.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_diff": -9.999999999999986,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -5.775000000000006,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 16,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7625,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.282122905027933,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6896551724137931,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.46875,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.446662596820663,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.417777492141498,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.9615518323476502,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.020768939393939423,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.04472727272727273,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "utr_diff": -0.21000000000000085,
    "utr_p1": 0.8729411764705882,
    "utr_p2": 0.8976470588235295,
    "utr_advantage": -1.3526570048309234,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "utr_available": 1.0
  },
  "feature_importance": {
    "rank_advantage": "0.0264",
    "rank_ratio": "0.0154",
    "log_rank_ratio": "0.0186",
    "rank_tier_advantage": "0.03",
    "points_diff": "0.0344",
    "best_rank_diff": "0.0156",
    "surface_wr_diff": "0.1032",
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0206",
    "surface_matches_ratio": "0.0126",
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0128",
    "surface_wr_p1": "0.0156",
    "surface_wr_p2": "0.0157",
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0122",
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0125",
    "p1_surface_matches": "0.0123",
    "p2_surface_matches": "0.0123",
    "p1_surface_dominance": "0.0134",
    "p1_confidence": "0.0145",
    "p2_confidence": "0.0121",
    "combined_confidence": "0.0143",
    "serve_quality_diff": "0.0122",
    "first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
    "second_serve_won_diff": "0.012",
    "bp_saved_diff": "0.0121",
    "bp_converted_diff": "0.0122",
    "aces_per_match_diff": "0.0118",
    "last5_wr_diff": "0.0115",
    "last3_wr_diff": "0.0125",
    "momentum_p1": "0.013",
    "momentum_p2": "0.0115",
    "momentum_diff": "0.0127",
    "weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0119",
    "current_streak_diff": "0.0129",
    "days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0132",
    "days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0114",
    "match_load_p1": "0.012",
    "match_load_p2": "0.0124",
    "match_load_diff": "0.0123",
    "h2h_wins_diff": "0.0133",
    "h2h_matches": "0.0152",
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0028",
    "h2h_on_surface": "0.0059",
    "h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0121",
    "h2h_confidence_score": "0.0151",
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0141",
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0133",
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.0121",
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.012",
    "serve_consistency_p1": "0.0117",
    "serve_consistency_p2": "0.0124",
    "surface_rank_synergy": "0.054",
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0125",
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": "0.0127",
    "elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0171",
    "utr_diff": "0.0324",
    "utr_p1": "0.012",
    "utr_p2": "0.0115",
    "utr_advantage": "0.0308",
    "utr_both_pro": "0.0149",
    "utr_available": "0.0172"
  }
}