Mattia Bellucci vs Carlos Alcaraz
US Open | Hard | Round of 64
27 Aug 2025, 23:20
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Mattia … Carlos … Prob Impl. P1
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Mattia Bellucci
Ranking #74
UTR Rating 14.93 Pro
UTR Ranking #104
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 52/96 = 54.2%
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking #1
UTR Rating 16.42 Pro
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 61/75 = 81.3%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -73.0000
rank_ratio 0.0135
log_rank_ratio -4.3041
rank_tier_advantage -3.0000
points_diff -11284.0000
best_rank_diff -62.0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -35.8566
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -25.7468
surface_matches_ratio 1.2800
surface_tournaments_won_diff -5.0000
surface_wr_p1 46.8760
surface_wr_p2 82.7326
surface_wr_p1_stable 54.0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 79.7468
p1_surface_matches 96.0000
p2_surface_matches 75.0000
p1_surface_dominance 0.0833
Confianza
p1_confidence 1.0000
p2_confidence 1.0000
combined_confidence 1.0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4.8160
first_serve_won_diff -6.2941
second_serve_won_diff -6.9205
bp_saved_diff 3.8489
bp_converted_diff -9.7861
aces_per_match_diff 0.2036
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0.6000
last3_wr_diff -0.3333
momentum_p1 60.0000
momentum_p2 100.0000
momentum_diff -40.0000
weighted_momentum_diff -23.9550
current_streak_diff -4.0000
days_since_last_match_p1 2.0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1.0000
match_load_p1 3.0000
match_load_p2 5.0000
match_load_diff -2.0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0.0000
h2h_matches 0.0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0.5000
h2h_on_surface 0.0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0.5000
h2h_confidence_score 0.0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0.7500
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1.3579
tiebreak_wr_p1 0.6000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0.5238
serve_consistency_p1 9.4571
serve_consistency_p2 3.5160
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 154.3291
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0.0418
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0.2543
elite_surface_amplifier 0.0000
UTR
utr_diff -1.4900
utr_p1 0.8153
utr_p2 0.9906
utr_advantage -9.5056
utr_both_pro 1.0000
utr_available 1.0000
utr_expected_prob 0.0000
utr_closeness 0.0000
utr_data_quality 0.0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
surface_wr_diff 0.1032
surface_rank_synergy 0.0540
points_diff 0.0344
utr_diff 0.0324
utr_advantage 0.0308
rank_tier_advantage 0.0300
rank_advantage 0.0264
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0.0206
log_rank_ratio 0.0186
utr_available 0.0172
Info del Partido
Match ID 8524
API ID 14494882
Gamdom ID -
Torneo US Open
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 64
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 8524,
    "api_id": 14494882,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Mattia Bellucci",
    "player2": "Carlos Alcaraz",
    "tournament": "US Open",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 64",
    "date": "2025-08-27T23:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": null,
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 74,
      "utr_singles": 14.93,
      "utr_ranking": 104,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 54.166666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 52,
      "wr_surface_total": 96,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 1,
      "utr_singles": 16.42,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 81.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 61,
      "wr_surface_total": 75,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.93,
      "ranking": 104,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 16.42,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "rank_advantage": -73,
    "rank_ratio": 0.013513513513513514,
    "log_rank_ratio": -4.304065093204169,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -3,
    "points_diff": -11284,
    "best_rank_diff": -62,
    "surface_wr_diff": -35.85659313696155,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -25.74683544303798,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.28,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -5,
    "surface_wr_p1": 46.87596500257334,
    "surface_wr_p2": 82.73255813953489,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 79.74683544303798,
    "p1_surface_matches": 96,
    "p2_surface_matches": 75,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.08333333333333333,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.816046498162748,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -6.294084728722069,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.920504539252413,
    "bp_saved_diff": 3.8489072617565867,
    "bp_converted_diff": -9.786144997995187,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.20357361398700125,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.33333333333333337,
    "momentum_p1": 60.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_diff": -39.99999999999998,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -23.954999999999984,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.75,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.3578732106339468,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5238095238095238,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.457075589949307,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 3.516020235553091,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 154.3291108820204,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.04175965002573334,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2543255813953489,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -0.0,
    "utr_diff": -1.490000000000002,
    "utr_p1": 0.8152941176470588,
    "utr_p2": 0.9905882352941179,
    "utr_advantage": -9.505582137161097,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "utr_available": 1.0
  },
  "feature_importance": {
    "rank_advantage": "0.0264",
    "rank_ratio": "0.0154",
    "log_rank_ratio": "0.0186",
    "rank_tier_advantage": "0.03",
    "points_diff": "0.0344",
    "best_rank_diff": "0.0156",
    "surface_wr_diff": "0.1032",
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0206",
    "surface_matches_ratio": "0.0126",
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0128",
    "surface_wr_p1": "0.0156",
    "surface_wr_p2": "0.0157",
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0122",
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0125",
    "p1_surface_matches": "0.0123",
    "p2_surface_matches": "0.0123",
    "p1_surface_dominance": "0.0134",
    "p1_confidence": "0.0145",
    "p2_confidence": "0.0121",
    "combined_confidence": "0.0143",
    "serve_quality_diff": "0.0122",
    "first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
    "second_serve_won_diff": "0.012",
    "bp_saved_diff": "0.0121",
    "bp_converted_diff": "0.0122",
    "aces_per_match_diff": "0.0118",
    "last5_wr_diff": "0.0115",
    "last3_wr_diff": "0.0125",
    "momentum_p1": "0.013",
    "momentum_p2": "0.0115",
    "momentum_diff": "0.0127",
    "weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0119",
    "current_streak_diff": "0.0129",
    "days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0132",
    "days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0114",
    "match_load_p1": "0.012",
    "match_load_p2": "0.0124",
    "match_load_diff": "0.0123",
    "h2h_wins_diff": "0.0133",
    "h2h_matches": "0.0152",
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0028",
    "h2h_on_surface": "0.0059",
    "h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0121",
    "h2h_confidence_score": "0.0151",
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0141",
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0133",
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.0121",
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.012",
    "serve_consistency_p1": "0.0117",
    "serve_consistency_p2": "0.0124",
    "surface_rank_synergy": "0.054",
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0125",
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": "0.0127",
    "elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0171",
    "utr_diff": "0.0324",
    "utr_p1": "0.012",
    "utr_p2": "0.0115",
    "utr_advantage": "0.0308",
    "utr_both_pro": "0.0149",
    "utr_available": "0.0172"
  }
}