Luca Nardi vs Matteo Arnaldi
Tokyo | Hard | Qualification Round 1
22 Sep 2025, 10:15
22 Sep 2025, 10:15
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luca … | Matteo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Nardi
Ranking
#108
UTR Rating
14,59 Pro
UTR Ranking
#145
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
22/41 = 53,7%
Matteo Arnaldi
Ranking
#65
UTR Rating
15,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#70
Forma L5
0% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
16/33 = 48,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -43,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6019 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5077 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -297,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -37,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 4,1841 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 3,3930 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,2462 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 54,0610 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 49,8769 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54,1176 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,7246 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 81,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 65,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0864 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -8,1563 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2,0043 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,2903 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -1,7251 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 7,0354 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,2336 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 31,4600 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 28,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6115 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7625 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4815 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6897 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,0400 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3,2654 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -2,1244 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0836 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0442 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,7753 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,8424 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,8319 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
utr_advantage
0,1087
utr_diff
0,0839
surface_wr_diff
0,0685
surface_rank_synergy
0,0307
rank_advantage
0,0208
rank_ratio
0,0191
surface_wr_p1
0,0190
surface_wr_diff_adjusted
0,0184
surface_wr_p2
0,0179
elite_surface_amplifier
0,0174
Info del Partido
Match ID
9786
API ID
14736684
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Tokyo
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 9786,
"api_id": 14736684,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Luca Nardi",
"player2": "Matteo Arnaldi",
"tournament": "Tokyo",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2025-09-22T06:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
}
},
"prediction": null,
"player_stats": {
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"ranking": 108,
"utr_singles": 14.59,
"utr_ranking": 145,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 53.65853658536586,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 65,
"utr_singles": 15.16,
"utr_ranking": 70,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 145,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 70,
"division": "Pro",
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}
},
"features": {
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"rank_ratio": 0.6018518518518519,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5077439572285826,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"points_diff": -297,
"best_rank_diff": -37,
"surface_wr_diff": 4.184081670362161,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 3.3930093776641073,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.2461538461538462,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1,
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"surface_wr_p2": 49.87689393939394,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.11764705882353,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.72463768115942,
"p1_surface_matches": 81,
"p2_surface_matches": 65,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.08641975308641975,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"serve_quality_diff": -8.156348577235768,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.0042656134515937,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.2903182742054753,
"bp_saved_diff": -1.725125461936436,
"bp_converted_diff": 7.035355506282336,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.233560144124168,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"momentum_diff": 30.000000000000004,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 31.460000000000008,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 28,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6115107913669064,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7625,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.48148148148148145,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6896551724137931,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.039956392008755,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.265447346376755,
"surface_rank_synergy": -2.1244421846772616,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.08360975609756105,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.044231060606060635,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"utr_diff": -0.5700000000000003,
"utr_p1": 0.7752941176470588,
"utr_p2": 0.8423529411764706,
"utr_advantage": -3.8319327731092456,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"utr_available": 1.0
},
"feature_importance": {
"rank_advantage": "0.0208",
"rank_ratio": "0.0191",
"log_rank_ratio": "0.0159",
"rank_tier_advantage": "0.0126",
"points_diff": "0.0137",
"best_rank_diff": "0.0166",
"surface_wr_diff": "0.0685",
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0184",
"surface_matches_ratio": "0.0114",
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0109",
"surface_wr_p1": "0.019",
"surface_wr_p2": "0.0179",
"surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0121",
"surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0116",
"p1_surface_matches": "0.0114",
"p2_surface_matches": "0.0115",
"p1_surface_dominance": "0.0127",
"p1_confidence": "0.0097",
"p2_confidence": "0.0123",
"combined_confidence": "0.0116",
"serve_quality_diff": "0.012",
"first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
"second_serve_won_diff": "0.0114",
"bp_saved_diff": "0.0115",
"bp_converted_diff": "0.011",
"aces_per_match_diff": "0.0106",
"last5_wr_diff": "0.0124",
"last3_wr_diff": "0.0129",
"momentum_p1": "0.0129",
"momentum_p2": "0.0108",
"momentum_diff": "0.0122",
"weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0137",
"current_streak_diff": "0.0146",
"days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0118",
"days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0122",
"match_load_p1": "0.0117",
"match_load_p2": "0.0111",
"match_load_diff": "0.0106",
"h2h_wins_diff": "0.0137",
"h2h_matches": "0.0117",
"h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0088",
"h2h_on_surface": "0.0",
"h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0131",
"h2h_confidence_score": "0.0124",
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0133",
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0118",
"tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.012",
"tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.0121",
"serve_consistency_p1": "0.0104",
"serve_consistency_p2": "0.0109",
"surface_rank_synergy": "0.0307",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0122",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": "0.0119",
"elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0174",
"utr_diff": "0.0839",
"utr_p1": "0.0118",
"utr_p2": "0.0114",
"utr_advantage": "0.1087",
"utr_both_pro": "0.0161",
"utr_available": "0.0118"
}
}