Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastián Báez
Tokyo | Hard | Round of 32
25 Sep 2025, 13:05
25 Sep 2025, 13:05
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Sebastián … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Sebastián Báez
Ranking
#36
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
3/14 = 21,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 35,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 36,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 3,5835 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 10660,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 17,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 58,9090 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 51,1754 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 2,4194 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 6,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 82,7326 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 23,8235 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 79,7468 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 28,5714 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 75,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,6267 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 16,2103 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 8,7090 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 11,1736 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 8,3690 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 2,3694 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,2518 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 78,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 53,0150 | |
| current_streak_diff | 7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 17,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,3579 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 0,7046 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 42,3689 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 211,1016 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2923 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,2268 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 117,8181 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
utr_advantage
0,1087
utr_diff
0,0839
surface_wr_diff
0,0685
surface_rank_synergy
0,0307
rank_advantage
0,0208
rank_ratio
0,0191
surface_wr_p1
0,0190
surface_wr_diff_adjusted
0,0184
surface_wr_p2
0,0179
elite_surface_amplifier
0,0174
Info del Partido
Match ID
9967
API ID
14740386
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Tokyo
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 9967,
"api_id": 14740386,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Sebasti\u00e1n B\u00e1ez",
"tournament": "Tokyo",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2025-09-25T09:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
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"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
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},
"tnnslive": {
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}
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"prediction": null,
"player_stats": {
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"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
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"wr_surface": 21.428571428571427,
"wr_surface_wins": 3,
"wr_surface_total": 14,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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}
},
"utr": {
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"p2": {
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"features": {
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"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"points_diff": 10660,
"best_rank_diff": 17,
"surface_wr_diff": 58.909028727770185,
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"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 6,
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"surface_wr_p1_stable": 79.74683544303798,
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"p1_surface_matches": 75,
"p2_surface_matches": 31,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.6266666666666667,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"serve_quality_diff": 16.21025188098494,
"first_serve_won_diff": 8.708953488372089,
"second_serve_won_diff": 11.173633720930226,
"bp_saved_diff": 8.369008635430909,
"bp_converted_diff": 2.3694310020519893,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.251842510259918,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.6,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666667,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"momentum_diff": 77.99999999999999,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 53.015,
"current_streak_diff": 7,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 17,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
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"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.3578732106339468,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"serve_consistency_p1": 0.7046098140651147,
"serve_consistency_p2": 42.36893120931194,
"surface_rank_synergy": 211.1016200920195,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2923255813953489,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.22676470588235306,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 117.81805745554037,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
"utr_p2": 0.9788235294117648,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0
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"feature_importance": {
"rank_advantage": "0.0208",
"rank_ratio": "0.0191",
"log_rank_ratio": "0.0159",
"rank_tier_advantage": "0.0126",
"points_diff": "0.0137",
"best_rank_diff": "0.0166",
"surface_wr_diff": "0.0685",
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0184",
"surface_matches_ratio": "0.0114",
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0109",
"surface_wr_p1": "0.019",
"surface_wr_p2": "0.0179",
"surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0121",
"surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0116",
"p1_surface_matches": "0.0114",
"p2_surface_matches": "0.0115",
"p1_surface_dominance": "0.0127",
"p1_confidence": "0.0097",
"p2_confidence": "0.0123",
"combined_confidence": "0.0116",
"serve_quality_diff": "0.012",
"first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
"second_serve_won_diff": "0.0114",
"bp_saved_diff": "0.0115",
"bp_converted_diff": "0.011",
"aces_per_match_diff": "0.0106",
"last5_wr_diff": "0.0124",
"last3_wr_diff": "0.0129",
"momentum_p1": "0.0129",
"momentum_p2": "0.0108",
"momentum_diff": "0.0122",
"weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0137",
"current_streak_diff": "0.0146",
"days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0118",
"days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0122",
"match_load_p1": "0.0117",
"match_load_p2": "0.0111",
"match_load_diff": "0.0106",
"h2h_wins_diff": "0.0137",
"h2h_matches": "0.0117",
"h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0088",
"h2h_on_surface": "0.0",
"h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0131",
"h2h_confidence_score": "0.0124",
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0133",
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0118",
"tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.012",
"tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.0121",
"serve_consistency_p1": "0.0104",
"serve_consistency_p2": "0.0109",
"surface_rank_synergy": "0.0307",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0122",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": "0.0119",
"elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0174",
"utr_diff": "0.0839",
"utr_p1": "0.0118",
"utr_p2": "0.0114",
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"utr_both_pro": "0.0161",
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}
}